By Dr. Preye Angaye, ACCA
Introduction Few national debates are as persistent and as polarising as the question of whether Nigeria is failing or prospering, and who bears responsibility: leaders or followers. On one hand, Nigeria possesses vast human and natural resources, a dynamic private sector, and cultural influence across Africa. On the other, it struggles with governance deficits, insecurity, inequality, and institutional fragility. This tension has produced a familiar narrative: a country of immense potential held back by chronic dysfunction. But reducing the problem to a single cause such as bad leadership or passive followership misses the deeper structural reality. Nigeria’s condition is better understood as a complex interaction between leadership failures, weak institutions, and societal complicity. Is the Nigerian State Failing or Prospering? The answer is dependent on the lens. Evidence of Failure A large body of academic literature points to persistent governance challenges since independence. These include corruption, weak institutions, and lack of accountability, all of which undermine development outcomes. Scholars argue that Nigeria has underperformed relative to its potential largely due to “corruption and bad governance”. The state has struggled to provide basic public goods like security, infrastructure, and rule of law leading some analysts to characterise it as suffering from a crisis of state capacity. Furthermore, corruption is not merely incidental; it is often described as systemic, eroding trust and weakening institutions that should enforce accountability. Evidence of Progress Yet, the “failing state” narrative is incomplete. Nigeria has made incremental gains in several areas: • Sustained democratic rule since 1999 (despite imperfections) • Growth of sectors like fintech, entertainment (Nollywood), and telecoms • Expanding middle class and entrepreneurial ecosystem
• Increasing civic awareness and political participation among youth These developments suggest that Nigeria is not collapsing but rather progressing unevenly, advancing in pockets while stagnating or regressing in others. The Leadership Question: A Crisis of Vision and Accountability Leadership remains central to Nigeria’s governance challenges. Many studies emphasise that political elites often prioritise personal or group interests over national development. Key issues include: • Weak accountability mechanisms: Public officials often evade consequences for misconduct • Policy inconsistency: Frequent changes disrupt long-term planning • Elite capture: State resources are concentrated among political and economic elites In this sense, leadership failure is not just about incompetence, it is about incentive structures that reward rent-seeking over public service. However, focusing solely on leaders risks oversimplification. The Followership Question: Complicity, Constraints, and Culture Blaming citizens outright would be unfair but ignoring their role would be incomplete. Structural Constraints Many Nigerians operate within: • High poverty levels • Weak access to justice • Limited economic opportunities These conditions can normalise survival-driven behaviours like petty corruption. Societal Complicity At the same time, public discourse increasingly acknowledges patterns such as: • Vote-buying and clientelism • Ethnic and religious voting blocs • Low civic engagement outside election cycles Even informal commentary highlights how governance failures are sustained by both elite manipulation and citizen participation in flawed systems. Trust Deficit A deeper issue is the absence of a strong social contract. Citizens often do not see the state as “theirs,” weakening the demand for accountability. Without this, democratic pressure on leaders remains inconsistent. Beyond Leaders vs Followers: The Institutional Problem The most compelling insight from both academic and policy literature is that Nigeria’s core challenge is institutional. • Weak rule of law enables corruption • Fragile bureaucracies undermine policy implementation • Lack of continuity disrupts reforms • Oversight institutions are often politicised Even well-designed policies fail because institutions lack the capacity or independence to implement them effectively. This explains why reforms often produce limited results: good intentions collapse within weak systems. A Balanced Verdict So, who is to blame? • Leaders bear primary responsibility for setting direction, enforcing accountability, and managing resources. • Followers (citizens) influence outcomes through political behaviour, civic engagement, and societal norms. • Institutions ultimately mediate both—shaping incentives and outcomes. The Nigerian condition is therefore not a simple blame game. It is a shared systemic failure, with uneven responsibility but mutual reinforcement. Practical Next Steps: How Nigeria Can Get It Right Moving forward requires shifting from diagnosis to execution. The following are realistic, evidence-based steps: 1. Strengthen Institutions, Not Just Personalities • Reform judicial independence and enforcement capacity • Digitize public finance and procurement systems to reduce discretion • Empower anti-corruption agencies with autonomy and follow-through Systems must outlast individuals. 2. Align Incentives for Political Leadership • Electoral reforms to reduce vote-buying • Transparent campaign financing • Performance-based governance metrics Leaders behave according to incentives. Change the incentives, and behaviour follows. 3. Rebuild the Civil Service • Merit-based recruitment and promotion • Continuous training and performance evaluation • Protection from political interference A capable bureaucracy is the engine of policy success. 4. Deepen Civic Responsibility and Accountability • Civic education on rights and responsibilities • Citizen-led monitoring of public projects • Strengthening media and civil society Accountability must be demand-driven, not just supply-driven. 5. Foster Economic Inclusion • Job creation and SME support • Reduce dependence on oil (diversification) • Expand social safety nets Economic security reduces vulnerability to corruption and clientelism. 6. Build a National Identity Beyond Ethnicity • Promote inclusive governance • Encourage cross-regional collaboration • Reform federal structures where necessary A shared sense of purpose strengthens collective accountability. Conclusion Nigeria is failing in certain aspects and also succeeding in others, hence it is a nation in transition, caught between its immense potential and deeply entrenched structural weaknesses. The debate over whether leaders or followers are to blame is, in many ways, misplaced. The real issue lies in the interaction between leadership, citizens, and institutions. Fixing Nigeria will not come from a single reform or a single election. It will require systemic change, sustained over time, driven by both responsible leadership and active citizenship. The path forward is difficult but not uncertain. The same forces that sustain dysfunction, if redirected, can also drive transformation.