The overwhelming victory recorded by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the presidential primaries of the ruling All Progressives Congress has undoubtedly sent a strong political signal ahead of the 2027 general election. Polling an astonishing 10,999,162 votes against the 16,503 votes secured by his lone challenger, Mr. Stanley Osifo, the outcome reflects the dominance of the incumbent president within the internal structures of the APC.
For the party leadership, the exercise was more than just a primary election; it was presented as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 presidential contest. APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, wasted no time in projecting confidence, insisting that the massive turnout and support for Tinubu indicate that victory in the general election is almost inevitable.
However, beyond the celebration and political excitement lies a set of troubling questions that cannot be ignored in the interest of democratic accountability and electoral credibility.
The APC currently claims to have 12,643,316 registered members. Yet, in 2023, the same party claimed membership strength exceeding 41 million. Curiously, despite recent defections from opposition parties into the APC, the party’s membership figure has now drastically reduced. This contradiction naturally raises concerns about the transparency and accuracy of political party membership data in Nigeria.
Even more revealing is the comparison between party membership claims and actual electoral performance. In the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu secured 8,794,753 votes nationwide — a figure significantly lower than the APC’s then-claimed membership of over 41 million. This means that a substantial percentage of supposed APC members either did not vote for their own candidate, stayed away from the polls, or perhaps existed only on paper.
While Professor Yilwatda attributed the discrepancy to glitches in the party’s online registration process, Nigerians deserve more comprehensive explanations. Political parties remain critical institutions in any democracy, and inflated or inconsistent membership figures undermine public trust in the political system.
The latest primary figures also deserve careful scrutiny. If nearly 11 million APC members voted in a direct primary, does this automatically translate into electoral victory in 2027? Certainly not. Party primaries and general elections are fundamentally different political exercises. Primaries are controlled largely by party structures and loyalists, while general elections involve a broader national electorate with diverse interests, frustrations, and expectations.
The APC may be celebrating today, but it must understand that Nigerians will ultimately judge the Tinubu administration not merely by political mobilization but by governance outcomes. Rising economic hardship, inflation, insecurity, unemployment, and public dissatisfaction remain major realities confronting millions of citizens across the country.
For many ordinary Nigerians, the real issue is not how many votes President Tinubu secured at the APC primary but whether his administration can improve living conditions before 2027. Political victories inside party circles may boost morale, but they do not automatically erase public anger over economic difficulties.
Nevertheless, the APC has demonstrated remarkable organizational strength by conducting nationwide direct primaries of such magnitude. The exercise also confirms that President Tinubu retains firm control over the ruling party despite ongoing political realignments and opposition criticisms.
As Nigeria gradually moves toward another election cycle, the opposition parties must also learn important lessons from the APC’s internal mobilization capacity. A fragmented and disorganized opposition cannot effectively challenge a ruling party that continues to consolidate power at both the grassroots and institutional levels.
Ultimately, the 2027 election will not be won merely through party membership statistics or primary election numbers. It will be determined by the confidence of Nigerians in leadership, governance performance, economic recovery, and the credibility of the electoral process itself.
The APC may have won the first political battle with style, but the larger contest for the hearts and minds of Nigerians has only just begun.
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